Risk Compass

Turn subsurface uncertainty into investment decisions.

Evaluate resources, geological risk, development scenarios and economics in one connected workflow — then compare opportunities, understand expected value and direct exploration capital where it matters most.

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From geological assumptions to portfolio decisions — without breaking the chain between them.

One connected decision workflow

From geology to investment decision.

Risk Compass connects the stages that are often evaluated separately: resource estimation, uncertainty, geological risk, development, economics and portfolio prioritization.

Each assumption remains connected to the decision it ultimately influences.

GeologyUncertaintyRiskDevelopmentEconomicsDecision

How does a subsurface assumption change the value and priority of an opportunity?

Risk Compass workflow

One evaluation. Seven connected decisions.

01Resource

Build the resource.

Define the geological and reservoir parameters of each pool and calculate the range of potentially recoverable resources. Keep the resource model structured around the geological object rather than a single headline number.

What resource potential does this opportunity contain?

Single-pool volumetric model and resource assumptions.

02Uncertainty

Quantify what you do not know.

Represent uncertain parameters as distributions and propagate them through Monte Carlo simulation. Examine the full range of outcomes, including P90, P50 and P10, instead of relying on one deterministic case.

What range of resource outcomes should we realistically expect?

Monte Carlo resource distribution with percentile outcomes and uncertainty inputs.

03Geological risk

Separate resource potential from chance of success.

Assess the geological elements required for success and calculate Pg consistently across opportunities. For multi-zone prospects, account for dependencies between pools and the probability of different geological outcomes.

What is the probability that the opportunity actually works?

Geological chance factors, Pg assessment and multi-zone dependency model.

04Development

Turn a discovery into a development case.

Translate recoverable resources into wells, production profiles, facilities and development timing. Test how different development strategies change production, capital exposure and project performance.

What does it take to produce this resource?

Development strategy with well count, production profile, facilities and schedule.

05Economics

Measure the value behind the barrels.

Combine production with CAPEX, OPEX, taxes, prices and timing to build project cash flow. Evaluate NPV, EMV, minimum economic field size and other economic metrics on the same assumptions used in the subsurface model.

Does this opportunity create sufficient value for the capital and risk involved?

Project cash flow, NPV, MEFS and expected-value metrics.

06Comparison

Compare opportunities on a common basis.

Bring resource potential, Pg, development requirements, economics and capital exposure into one comparison. See why two prospects with similar resource volumes can represent very different investment opportunities.

Which opportunity offers the strongest risk-adjusted investment case?

Cross-prospect comparison of resource, risk, economics and capital metrics.

07Portfolio

Turn individual prospects into an exploration strategy.

Rank opportunities by expected value, capital efficiency, risk and other decision metrics. Evaluate the expected contribution of each opportunity to portfolio value and prioritize exploration under real capital constraints.

Where should the next exploration dollar go?

Portfolio ranking, expected-value contribution and capital allocation view.

Why it matters

The biggest prospect is not always the best investment.

Resource size is only one part of the decision.

A large prospect may carry low geological probability, high development cost or substantial capital exposure. A smaller opportunity can create more expected value when risk, development and economics are considered together.

ResourceProbabilityDevelopmentEconomicsCapital exposure

Are we ranking prospects by size — or by the value they can realistically create?

Beyond volume

Move from “How big is it?” to “What is it worth pursuing?”

Two prospects can have very different investment value even when their resource estimates look similar.

Risk Compass carries geological uncertainty through development and economics so that the final comparison reflects not only upside, but also probability, cost, timing and capital required to capture it.

A smaller, lower-cost prospect with stronger Pg can outperform a much larger opportunity.

High resource potential does not automatically mean high expected value.

What actually drives the value of this opportunity?

Portfolio decision support

Build the exploration program around expected value.

Evaluate prospects individually, understand their expected contribution to portfolio value, and compare them under a consistent decision framework.

Then use ranking, capital efficiency and portfolio metrics to determine where exploration investment can create the strongest expected outcome.

Evaluate prospectsUnderstand expected valuePrioritize opportunitiesBuild a better exploration program

Which combination of opportunities gives the portfolio the strongest expected outcome?

Decision transparency

Know why an opportunity ranks where it does.

A ranking is useful only when the reasoning behind it is visible. Risk Compass keeps the path from assumptions to decision metrics traceable.

See which assumptions drive uncertainty.
Understand whether geological risk, development or economics limits value.
Identify the parameters that have the greatest influence on the decision.
Explain why one opportunity ranks above another.
Test how changing an assumption changes the result.

What would have to change for this decision to change?

Decision drivers, sensitivities and traceable ranking metrics.

Built for exploration decisions

For teams that need to connect subsurface judgement with capital decisions.

Exploration and subsurface teams

Quantify resources, uncertainty and geological risk within a structured evaluation workflow.

Asset and New Ventures teams

Compare opportunities using consistent technical and economic assumptions.

Exploration managers and decision makers

Understand expected value, rank opportunities and allocate exploration capital across the portfolio.

Small and mid-sized E&P companies

Bring resource, risk, development and economics into one decision environment without building a fragmented process across multiple tools.

Energy Compass

A platform for technical decisions under uncertainty.

Energy Compass is the platform behind a family of specialized decision-support applications for subsurface and energy workflows.

Risk Compass is its exploration risk and economics application — connecting geological evaluation, uncertainty, development economics and portfolio decision-making.

Future Energy Compass applications will extend the same approach to other technical workflows while sharing a consistent data, calculation and decision framework.

One platform.Specialized applications.A common foundation for technical decision-making.

About us

Built from the intersection of subsurface expertise and software.

Energy Compass combines experience in geology, exploration, engineering, quantitative analysis and software development.

We build tools around the way technical teams actually evaluate uncertain opportunities: from geological assumptions through economic consequences to the decisions that follow.